All of the models still point at a significant severe weather event for the OK/KS area. The SPC has issued a HIGH RISK with a 30% tornado probability.

Early next week has been consistently showing a chance for a severe weather event in the plains. A trough will dip down into the four corners region early next week pulling up Spring time moisture into the plains. This moisture return will support 3000+ J/kg CAPE values and a 850mb low in western KS and SSE surface winds will supply an adequate sheared environment for supercells and possibly tornadoes in the KS/OK area. The details are still fuzzy as the NAM is just now getting a hold of the event and the GFS and ECMWF have been rather quick with the system compared the the NAM. Hopefully they all come into some kind of agreement pretty soon. Atleast a little closer to each other....
Tuesday also looks like a good chase day too but I'm still not sure. I'll make that decision tomorrow when the event comes into the NAM's range.

Will be chasing in SE Arkansas today with Megan. Our initial target is Pine Bluff, AR.
We will have the live stream going once we get closer to Pine Bluff as storms to the SW should be firing once we get there.

I decided to head to central Arkansas for today's chase to await the storms that will fire in SW Arkansas instead of taking a chance in the hills and woods of the Quachitas. Right now I am filling up in Russellville and grabbing a bite to eat before I continue west. My live video will be up on this website and also at www.severestudios.com.

With the potential for an outbreak across Arkansas today, I can't help but to go chase. Right now my plan is to either stay in the Fort Smith area or to head down to Texarkana...I'll have an update closer to noon on where I'm heading.

Even though Wednesday-Friday looks good for severe thunderstorms out in OK/TX/KS and even here in Arkansas, I wont be chasing. I will be in Norman all day Wednesday and I don't need to miss work for Thursday and Friday too. Hopefully there will be other chances before we move and I become tied down to a new job. There's not much time but with this week, hopefully the next few weeks will really ramp up.

I left Sunday evening and headed to Stillwater and stayed with a friend overnight. I got up early Monday morning around 6am and headed north to Kansas. I had planned on setting up shop in Salina, KS to wait for storms to fire but I ended up stopping in McPherson, KS. I sat around there for a while until the surface conditions started showing the best bet of higher instability to the southwest. There was also a better shot of the cap breaking so I headed down to Hutchinson and then down to Kingman. The conditions continued to show a chance of storms firing farther west and also into Oklahoma. I headed down to Waynoka, OK just east of where the SPC issued a MCD about the cap possibly breaking soon. Of course, the cap never broke so I took off towards OKC where I wanted to start off my Tuesday. I also had plans to look at some duplexes in Norman Tuesday morning. 
I stayed the night in Norman and then on Tuesday I looked at a couple of places to live and then went to the KSBI station in OKC to sign some "freelance chaser" paperwork.  Patrick Marsh then invited me to a special discussion he was leading at the NWC in Norman so I headed back to Norman for the 1:30pm meeting. After the discussion, I headed northward to around Pond Creek, OK north of Enid just east of the dryline. Storms had already lined up in Kansas and began to train over the same area sparking flash flood warnings. I had hopes that this line would continue to build to the south. A line of convection began to form to my west showing the pronounced dryline. A few towering cumulus did form just to the NW of me but raced off into southern Kansas. The first two quickly dissipated but the third showed some signs of staying for the long haul so I headed east to hit I-35 to head north. The storm was moving at around 50mph (estimated though I know it was moving around that speed). After reaching Bramen, OK, I took off on county and state roads northeastward to try to stay up with the storm. I did capture a few decent photos but I never got near enough to get any good pictures of the base because of the speed of the storm. I stayed on the storm until I reached a town called Paw Paw Township, KS where I called off the chase as I really had no reason to try to stay up with it after dark. Storms were finally firing and lining up to my southwest in Oklahoma along the dryline (an hour after dark of course) so I headed south towards Tulsa, OK.  A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued and the line of storms looked pretty stout. It was a good chance for me to try for some lightning pictures so the trip wasn't a COMPLETE failure. I have pictures in my photo albums. They're not the greatest but I didn't have much to work with. Hopefully the season picks up some steam and doesn't turn out to be worse than last year. We'll just have to wait and see. 
Below are my GPS tracking maps for Monday and Tuesday.


Monday 4/5/2010

Tuesday 4/6/2010